{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42612e09-897a-4eae-b032-414219a9b293", "symbol": "ASC", "name": "Ascopiave S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.899, "architecture_energy": 74.878, "architecture_maturity": 32.427, "architecture_confidence": 93.186, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 39.55, "rotation_down": 64.02, "downward_expansion": 88.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.863667, 2.925727, 2.995848, 3.109847 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.83, "trend_reference": 3.254136, "distance_from_trend": -0.130338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.701619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.103749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170088, "excess_performance": -0.34098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130338, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031018, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1465038, "relative_activity": 3.087593, "balance": 0.950709, "dry_up": 1.675074, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046192, "annualized_volatility": 0.324875, "from_high_reference": -0.283544, "from_low_reference": 0.052045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.254136, "fair_value_reference": 2.701619, "structural_low": 2.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.013378, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.027623, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.313472, "worst_return": -0.212245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049267, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098174, "worst_return": -0.27, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043668, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.093191, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007236, "worst_return": -0.198333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004854, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": 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"volume": 310878, "typical_volume": 412002.65, "trend": 3.291136, "fair_value": 2.691023, "relative_strength": -20.093071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.438022, "energy": 46.233832, "activity_lines": [ 3.007667, 3.013331, 3.066077, 3.176467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.7, "volume": 1062795, "typical_volume": 421891.8, "trend": 3.27147, "fair_value": 2.695933, "relative_strength": -26.879614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.773619, "energy": 62.064951, "activity_lines": [ 2.904333, 2.953891, 3.022701, 3.138329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.83, "volume": 1465038, "typical_volume": 474491.9, "trend": 3.254136, "fair_value": 2.701619, "relative_strength": -25.103749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.899423, "energy": 74.87769, "activity_lines": [ 2.863667, 2.925727, 2.995848, 3.109847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }