{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42614683-b2f4-4ba9-8e6e-7e87525cc2a6", "symbol": "POS", "name": "PORR AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.672, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.011, "architecture_energy": 24.394, "architecture_maturity": 53.517, "architecture_confidence": 76.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.37, "rotation_up": 19.25, "upward_expansion": 49.71, "deceleration": 90.65, "rotation_down": 43.71, "downward_expansion": 27.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.303334, 39.955455, 39.714426, 38.972908 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.400002, "trend_reference": 37.88334, "distance_from_trend": 0.013638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.325895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.719976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.905542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077322, "excess_performance": -0.096924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111671, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.719976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077322, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.038538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194017, "relative_activity": 0.826341, "balance": 1.038538, "dry_up": 0.950883, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081631, "annualized_volatility": 0.486338, "from_high_reference": -0.168831, "from_low_reference": 0.560627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.88334, "fair_value_reference": 22.325895, "structural_low": 30.635294, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03937, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.007329, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.137982, "worst_return": -0.027778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015701, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017805, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.359272, "worst_return": -0.106688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08758, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.012482, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.292857, "worst_return": -0.155375, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.954012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.950001, "volume": 340574, "typical_volume": 260400.95, "trend": 37.245425, "fair_value": 21.802923, "relative_strength": -1.654999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.416126, "energy": 36.365786, "activity_lines": [ 41.406667, 41.314545, 39.86154, 38.848547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.950001, "volume": 173711, "typical_volume": 249526.35, "trend": 37.481144, "fair_value": 21.973883, "relative_strength": -5.409271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.697828, "energy": 17.804344, "activity_lines": [ 39.866667, 40.874545, 39.801669, 38.894004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.0, "volume": 184731, "typical_volume": 241216.3, "trend": 37.695837, "fair_value": 22.14723, "relative_strength": -5.213249, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.860798, "energy": 23.859141, "activity_lines": [ 38.8, 40.411818, 39.745767, 38.927478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.400002, "volume": 194017, "typical_volume": 234790.4, "trend": 37.88334, "fair_value": 22.325895, "relative_strength": -6.905542, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.011048, "energy": 24.39351, "activity_lines": [ 38.303334, 39.955455, 39.714426, 38.972908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }