{ "ticker": { "uuid": "426354c4-0e4f-4761-8657-589919e8e92f", "symbol": "WOOD", "name": "ISHARES GLOBAL TIMBER & FORESTRY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 71.55, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.745, "architecture_energy": 54.492, "architecture_maturity": 5.266, "architecture_confidence": 74.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.75, "rotation_up": 72.47, "upward_expansion": 50.3, "deceleration": 22.5, "rotation_down": 14.12, "downward_expansion": 22.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.3089, 69.673101, 68.582774, 69.138752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 73.545, "trend_reference": 70.660207, "distance_from_trend": 0.040826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.247475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.429438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046922, "excess_performance": -0.234376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072134, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.663079, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101958, "relative_activity": 1.344709, "balance": 1.663079, "dry_up": 0.955341, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033354, "annualized_volatility": 0.224043, "from_high_reference": -0.10921, "from_low_reference": 0.150172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.660207, "fair_value_reference": 73.247475, "structural_low": 63.942585, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010488, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.033456, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072692, "worst_return": -0.024872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055747, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.040766, "worst_return": -0.069052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.019927, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.07154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054172, "worst_return": -0.043264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.364422, "energy": 16.06058, "activity_lines": [ 67.863773, 67.344964, 67.564345, 68.968576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.34, "volume": 66279, "typical_volume": 77960.55, "trend": 70.714499, "fair_value": 73.216834, "relative_strength": -10.481101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.083692, "energy": 13.034599, "activity_lines": [ 68.46132, 67.808038, 67.680076, 68.876163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.9457, "volume": 65292, "typical_volume": 75228.1, "trend": 70.706068, "fair_value": 73.223932, "relative_strength": -7.284941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.032456, "energy": 25.515322, "activity_lines": [ 69.789973, 68.65719, 68.060274, 68.955595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.545, "volume": 101958, "typical_volume": 75821.6, "trend": 70.660207, "fair_value": 73.247475, "relative_strength": -9.429438, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.745321, "energy": 54.492144, "activity_lines": [ 71.3089, 69.673101, 68.582774, 69.138752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }