{ "ticker": { "uuid": "426afd35-fdca-4564-9efa-88ce3472491d", "symbol": "VAW", "name": "VANGUARD WORLD FUND VANGUARD MATERIALS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.92, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.648, "architecture_energy": 13.008, "architecture_maturity": 22.3, "architecture_confidence": 64.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.71, "rotation_up": 18.27, "upward_expansion": 12.28, "deceleration": 48.03, "rotation_down": 45.1, "downward_expansion": 68.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 228.524, 229.047495, 229.739134, 229.649132 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 236.41, "trend_reference": 229.802488, "distance_from_trend": 0.028753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 197.646685, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.459291, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010984, "excess_performance": -0.114641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.926439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240430, "relative_activity": 0.859023, "balance": 0.926439, "dry_up": 0.794261, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036627, "annualized_volatility": 0.208919, "from_high_reference": -0.032587, "from_low_reference": 0.25178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 229.802488, "fair_value_reference": 197.646685, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 223.61, "volume": 234316, "typical_volume": 311854.2, "trend": 228.356421, "fair_value": 196.638646, "relative_strength": -5.201652, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.832691, "energy": 12.300526, "activity_lines": [ 228.040013, 229.427279, 229.720614, 229.679695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 226.79, "volume": 196641, "typical_volume": 298400.9, "trend": 228.881947, "fair_value": 196.940737, "relative_strength": -3.202588, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.28563, "energy": 16.724759, "activity_lines": [ 227.067333, 228.938024, 229.551978, 229.578636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 222.87, "volume": 217828, "typical_volume": 290201.2, "trend": 229.305366, "fair_value": 197.244035, "relative_strength": -5.836791, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.884483, "energy": 43.08581, "activity_lines": [ 225.230333, 227.724417, 229.003922, 229.190768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.41, "volume": 240430, "typical_volume": 279887.7, "trend": 229.802488, "fair_value": 197.646685, "relative_strength": -3.459291, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.647512, "energy": 13.007893, "activity_lines": [ 228.524, 229.047495, 229.739134, 229.649132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }