{ "ticker": { "uuid": "426fdf95-3c32-4f18-8425-9f51af7cbdb6", "symbol": "AYTU", "name": "Aytu BioScience Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.525, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.342, "architecture_energy": 18.908, "architecture_maturity": 40.115, "architecture_confidence": 84.965, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.99, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 40.63, "rotation_down": 33.17, "downward_expansion": 58.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.25, 2.226545, 2.267905, 2.327828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.36, "trend_reference": 2.398, "distance_from_trend": -0.015847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.292574, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.207643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012552, "excess_performance": -0.200006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014515, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.807517, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162512, "relative_activity": 0.944962, "balance": 0.807517, "dry_up": 0.743447, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082047, "annualized_volatility": 0.398673, "from_high_reference": -0.230016, "from_low_reference": 0.430216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.398, "fair_value_reference": 2.292574, "structural_low": 1.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.08889, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.096519, "regime_survival": 0.925, "best_return": 1.025806, "worst_return": -0.591071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.271014, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.298179, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.59893, "worst_return": -0.7492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.475379, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.611653, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.595668, "worst_return": -0.719395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.503939, "energy": 44.700096, "activity_lines": [ 2.197333, 2.228182, 2.344381, 2.393376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.25, "volume": 163008, "typical_volume": 195382.55, "trend": 2.448333, "fair_value": 2.280203, "relative_strength": -18.534646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.260158, "energy": 34.994576, "activity_lines": [ 2.211333, 2.222364, 2.328619, 2.380473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.15, "volume": 92956, "typical_volume": 187740.55, "trend": 2.435, "fair_value": 2.282382, "relative_strength": -18.303555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.014702, "energy": 41.122273, "activity_lines": [ 2.192, 2.204909, 2.303571, 2.361226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.16, "volume": 60002, "typical_volume": 178556.65, "trend": 2.425333, "fair_value": 2.285138, "relative_strength": -15.953637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.446405, "energy": 40.399726, "activity_lines": [ 2.176, 2.195636, 2.281476, 2.343484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 195954, "typical_volume": 178642.85, "trend": 2.407333, "fair_value": 2.288536, "relative_strength": -13.211917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.182741, "energy": 31.929012, "activity_lines": [ 2.193333, 2.199636, 2.267762, 2.330882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.36, "volume": 162512, "typical_volume": 171977.3, "trend": 2.398, "fair_value": 2.292574, "relative_strength": -12.207643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.341813, "energy": 18.907536, "activity_lines": [ 2.25, 2.226545, 2.267905, 2.327828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }