{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42717729-1134-46b4-bfde-e6c03ed3e77a", "symbol": "002268", "name": "CETC Cyberspace Security Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.26, "architecture_energy": 26.139, "architecture_maturity": 89.002, "architecture_confidence": 73.206, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.9, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 19.91, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 28.49, "downward_expansion": 56.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 13.958501, 14.270796, 15.123436 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.37, "trend_reference": 16.509601, "distance_from_trend": -0.129597, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.755398, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.538101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.253894, "excess_performance": -0.261294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129597, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084249, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049134, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70952896, "relative_activity": 1.417208, "balance": 0.774494, "dry_up": 1.613897, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090097, "annualized_volatility": 0.416551, "from_high_reference": -0.395711, "from_low_reference": 0.170672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.509601, "fair_value_reference": 17.755398, "structural_low": 12.275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.031528, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.01951, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.350584, "worst_return": -0.166518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053871, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.033326, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.410895, "worst_return": -0.294033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046857, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080444, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.231638, "worst_return": -0.376213, 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-21.339153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.566062, "energy": 54.963518, "activity_lines": [ 13.82628, 13.852529, 14.789378, 15.87815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.83, "volume": 89641327, "typical_volume": 53897569.45, "trend": 17.064601, "fair_value": 17.995009, "relative_strength": -21.374013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.005491, "energy": 42.926339, "activity_lines": [ 13.93619, 13.787622, 14.596959, 15.660025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.43, "volume": 95908868, "typical_volume": 53196206.0, "trend": 16.907268, "fair_value": 17.910311, "relative_strength": -23.270669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.870147, "energy": 36.155427, "activity_lines": [ 13.862324, 13.695927, 14.396397, 15.425535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.57, "volume": 66697662, "typical_volume": 49710585.35, "trend": 16.715268, "fair_value": 17.830698, "relative_strength": -14.884302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.297408, "energy": 24.01239, "activity_lines": [ 14.152667, 13.840222, 14.332168, 15.274743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.37, "volume": 70952896, "typical_volume": 50065263.4, "trend": 16.509601, "fair_value": 17.755398, "relative_strength": -19.538101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.260146, "energy": 26.138824, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 13.958501, 14.270796, 15.123436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }