{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4273debf-7c90-4207-8129-e89b53a5ff79", "symbol": "002198", "name": "Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.352, "architecture_energy": 65.65, "architecture_maturity": 69.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.03, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 12.56, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 48.48, "downward_expansion": 81.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.236667, 3.278727, 3.837762, 4.631957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 5.569333, "distance_from_trend": -0.400287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.53739, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.455308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.518732, "excess_performance": -0.526132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.400287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489093, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.474553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.518732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375671, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25013782, "relative_activity": 0.43305, "balance": 0.375671, "dry_up": 0.541894, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121603, "annualized_volatility": 0.624736, "from_high_reference": -0.603796, "from_low_reference": 0.151724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.569333, "fair_value_reference": 6.53739, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004942, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.250394, "worst_return": -0.24649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.102865, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030655, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.185714, "worst_return": -0.222734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029042, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.036064, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.414286, "worst_return": -0.139785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 60707061.05, "trend": 5.692333, "fair_value": 6.563208, "relative_strength": -46.540633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.678614, "energy": 64.964122, "activity_lines": [ 3.216, 3.291455, 3.988238, 4.78372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 25013782, "typical_volume": 57761826.8, "trend": 5.569333, "fair_value": 6.53739, "relative_strength": -47.455308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.352267, "energy": 65.649831, "activity_lines": [ 3.236667, 3.278727, 3.837762, 4.631957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }