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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.228, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.337, "architecture_energy": 43.365, "architecture_maturity": 5.62, "architecture_confidence": 81.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.03, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 5.54, "deceleration": 48.09, "rotation_down": 64.08, "downward_expansion": 81.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 10991.666667, 11148.545455, 11578.772796, 11746.787023 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11340.0, "trend_reference": 11877.427604, "distance_from_trend": -0.045248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9180.131783, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235276, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.799219, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040131, "excess_performance": -0.26996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235276, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19871, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040131, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.326912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 369, "relative_activity": 0.018803, "balance": 1.326912, "dry_up": 0.178964, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07345, "annualized_volatility": 0.303049, "from_high_reference": -0.159066, "from_low_reference": 0.171749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11877.427604, "fair_value_reference": 9180.131783, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11005.0, "volume": 4038, "typical_volume": 25855.0, "trend": 11830.038444, "fair_value": 9114.317308, "relative_strength": -30.284805, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.669049, "energy": 61.427388, "activity_lines": [ 11193.0, 11566.181818, 11850.666397, 11921.314056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10960.0, "volume": 2779, "typical_volume": 21875.3, "trend": 11847.108691, "fair_value": 9137.697851, "relative_strength": -28.337896, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.965771, "energy": 55.937611, "activity_lines": [ 11091.666667, 11396.545455, 11757.016606, 11865.182544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10520.0, "volume": 6862, "typical_volume": 19965.95, "trend": 11848.021875, "fair_value": 9156.860915, "relative_strength": -29.335624, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.212739, "energy": 66.890098, "activity_lines": [ 10889.333333, 11179.727273, 11625.69488, 11779.562628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11340.0, "volume": 369, "typical_volume": 19624.05, "trend": 11877.427604, "fair_value": 9180.131783, "relative_strength": -18.799219, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.337084, "energy": 43.364548, "activity_lines": [ 10991.666667, 11148.545455, 11578.772796, 11746.787023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }