{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42786ae4-9764-44ea-998e-9c4e0ac734fc", "symbol": "000890", "name": "Jiangsu Fasten Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.491, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.122, "architecture_energy": 75.604, "architecture_maturity": 30.857, "architecture_confidence": 59.052, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 27.73, "deceleration": 43.09, "rotation_down": 67.53, "downward_expansion": 69.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.888667, 7.34, 9.121238, 9.776237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.37, "trend_reference": 9.643, "distance_from_trend": -0.235715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.959872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.485926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.121538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.425532, "excess_performance": 0.418132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.235715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.485926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.599616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.928232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.425532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.152192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91123511, "relative_activity": 0.430392, "balance": 0.152192, "dry_up": 0.417728, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161674, "annualized_volatility": 0.903996, "from_high_reference": -0.581488, "from_low_reference": 0.954907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.643, "fair_value_reference": 4.959872, "structural_low": 5.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009645, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.171182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024213, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116049, "worst_return": -0.042283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.058111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.117702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217284, "worst_return": -0.046512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.021149, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.1865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150121, "worst_return": -0.107822, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.24605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.527415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.248341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092365, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.92, "volume": 205166657, "typical_volume": 108081085.45, "trend": 4.361, "fair_value": 4.254551, "relative_strength": 15.812169, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.361479, 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"close": 6.49, "volume": 83192067, "typical_volume": 275226905.55, "trend": 9.502, "fair_value": 4.906795, "relative_strength": -9.650274, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.351812, "energy": 69.86404, "activity_lines": [ 7.406, 8.391273, 10.387143, 10.298129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.4, "volume": 101093211, "typical_volume": 249364740.25, "trend": 9.521, "fair_value": 4.921859, "relative_strength": -11.662754, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.35646, "energy": 78.493276, "activity_lines": [ 6.951333, 7.862364, 9.908571, 10.098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.73, "volume": 78359849, "typical_volume": 233885883.7, "trend": 9.566333, "fair_value": 4.938974, "relative_strength": -6.230825, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.406361, "energy": 76.930806, "activity_lines": [ 6.773333, 7.497818, 9.474048, 9.917935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.37, "volume": 91123511, "typical_volume": 211721909.7, "trend": 9.643, "fair_value": 4.959872, "relative_strength": -3.121538, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.121547, "energy": 75.604399, "activity_lines": [ 6.888667, 7.34, 9.121238, 9.776237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }