{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42791462-67fa-45b4-9e50-5a50800cc271", "symbol": "300102", "name": "Xiamen Changelight Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.162, "architecture_energy": 86.006, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.59, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.09, "rotation_up": 9.42, "upward_expansion": 21.73, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 75.83, "downward_expansion": 95.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.846, 20.008182, 23.176543, 25.763854 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.219999, "trend_reference": 29.233016, "distance_from_trend": -0.342524, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.572331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.173935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.495128, "excess_performance": -0.502528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.342524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018357, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416116, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.28871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.549364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.495128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181059589, "relative_activity": 0.877889, "balance": 0.39033, "dry_up": 0.929227, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181462, "annualized_volatility": 0.673914, "from_high_reference": -0.588659, "from_low_reference": 0.700599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.233016, "fair_value_reference": 13.572331, "structural_low": 14.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.087227, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.033644, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.169935, "worst_return": -0.352918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051705, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.083738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.264706, "worst_return": -0.135309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.124631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286667, "worst_return": -0.068285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 16.629999, "volume": 271256841, "typical_volume": 226070578.4, "trend": 30.056932, "fair_value": 13.371666, "relative_strength": -27.424102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.119703, "energy": 62.615115, "activity_lines": [ 21.970666, 23.202909, 26.060617, 28.186697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 171504418, "typical_volume": 213905146.2, "trend": 29.767585, "fair_value": 13.431286, "relative_strength": -30.422502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.180369, "energy": 86.524581, "activity_lines": [ 19.634, 21.702, 24.896823, 27.282379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.52, "volume": 142770318, "typical_volume": 208266295.95, "trend": 29.509547, "fair_value": 13.49341, "relative_strength": -27.455568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.343514, "energy": 89.155414, "activity_lines": [ 18.029333, 20.512909, 23.870093, 26.427696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 181059589, "typical_volume": 206244234.9, "trend": 29.233016, "fair_value": 13.572331, "relative_strength": -20.173935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.162423, "energy": 86.006161, "activity_lines": [ 17.846, 20.008182, 23.176543, 25.763854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }