{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42807b61-444d-4b63-a127-2bec459d0777", "symbol": "FTGE", "name": "First Trust Eurozone AlphaDEX UCITS ETF Class A Shares", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.593, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.031, "architecture_energy": 58.92, "architecture_maturity": 55.764, "architecture_confidence": 82.117, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 55.24, "upward_expansion": 82.47, "deceleration": 61.87, "rotation_down": 27.29, "downward_expansion": 9.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.67, 65.448545, 64.847333, 63.845204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 66.389999, "trend_reference": 62.624666, "distance_from_trend": 0.060125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.392148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.419612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088182, "excess_performance": 0.023543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034196, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.990993, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1018, "relative_activity": 0.228006, "balance": 0.990993, "dry_up": 0.429918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016407, "annualized_volatility": 0.147764, "from_high_reference": -0.005542, "from_low_reference": 0.276731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.624666, "fair_value_reference": 47.392148, "structural_low": 55.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.015131, "positive_rate": 0.677419, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": 0.00827, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.106886, "worst_return": -0.084243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.045746, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.013074, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.119408, "worst_return": -0.111421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093782, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042847, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.213538, "worst_return": 0.002656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 65.182, 65.007637, 63.871, 62.929763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.739998, "volume": 2531, "typical_volume": 6640.15, "trend": 61.857333, "fair_value": 46.839039, "relative_strength": 7.860058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.557015, "energy": 49.182169, "activity_lines": [ 65.018666, 65.009454, 64.068143, 63.132559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.32, "volume": 2444, "typical_volume": 5648.25, "trend": 62.137, "fair_value": 47.01641, "relative_strength": 7.281672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.960807, "energy": 50.294576, "activity_lines": [ 65.102, 65.096727, 64.312143, 63.355957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.720001, "volume": 1685, "typical_volume": 4905.6, "trend": 62.389666, "fair_value": 47.201186, "relative_strength": 5.389156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.263576, "energy": 48.47548, "activity_lines": [ 65.314, 65.224545, 64.565381, 63.587118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.389999, "volume": 1018, "typical_volume": 4464.8, "trend": 62.624666, "fair_value": 47.392148, "relative_strength": 3.419612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.03131, "energy": 58.92046, "activity_lines": [ 65.67, 65.448545, 64.847333, 63.845204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }