{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42844cd8-f9b6-4c92-96d4-8e1155d82cf5", "symbol": "600405", "name": "Beijing Dynamic Power Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.978, "architecture_energy": 47.538, "architecture_maturity": 49.013, "architecture_confidence": 91.747, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.65, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 6.48, "deceleration": 56.81, "rotation_down": 55.05, "downward_expansion": 77.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.144, 4.216, 4.432571, 4.684796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.35, "trend_reference": 4.991333, "distance_from_trend": -0.128489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.016731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.250022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169847, "excess_performance": -0.126643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155067, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041475, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169847, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61162842, "relative_activity": 1.176838, "balance": 0.353651, "dry_up": 1.425961, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104686, "annualized_volatility": 0.427828, "from_high_reference": -0.431373, "from_low_reference": 0.175676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.991333, "fair_value_reference": 5.016731, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003466, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.004803, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.27933, "worst_return": -0.190053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021113, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.018534, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.234957, "worst_return": -0.171429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003552, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.058862, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.555874, "worst_return": -0.115163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106646, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1133, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 64982923.35, "trend": 5.144333, "fair_value": 5.060192, "relative_strength": -18.631222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.281566, "energy": 50.087125, "activity_lines": [ 4.439333, 4.459636, 4.747381, 4.94572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.05, "volume": 130230666, "typical_volume": 69622482.1, "trend": 5.102667, "fair_value": 5.048397, "relative_strength": -23.594788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.527542, "energy": 49.048293, "activity_lines": [ 4.338, 4.365818, 4.654714, 4.875118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.82, "volume": 57836140, "typical_volume": 67009159.8, "trend": 5.057333, "fair_value": 5.035897, "relative_strength": -28.272404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.902921, "energy": 53.522443, "activity_lines": [ 4.174, 4.252, 4.547238, 4.792366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 47211518, "typical_volume": 55465979.85, "trend": 5.02, "fair_value": 5.024936, "relative_strength": -23.283587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.936787, "energy": 51.939336, "activity_lines": [ 4.104, 4.201091, 4.471524, 4.728022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 61162842, "typical_volume": 51972173.25, "trend": 4.991333, "fair_value": 5.016731, "relative_strength": -19.250022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.978499, "energy": 47.537994, "activity_lines": [ 4.144, 4.216, 4.432571, 4.684796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }