{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42879e95-3a2f-4adc-99ca-5de634a5cf4c", "symbol": "002241", "name": "Goertek Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.689, "architecture_energy": 21.201, "architecture_maturity": 42.031, "architecture_confidence": 62.254, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.78, "rotation_up": 21.34, "upward_expansion": 13.03, "deceleration": 66.08, "rotation_down": 36.08, "downward_expansion": 60.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.03, 22.924, 23.552161, 23.890117 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.290001, "trend_reference": 24.743745, "distance_from_trend": -0.058752, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.517993, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.842293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097878, "excess_performance": -0.105278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077139, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.50714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 402133463, "relative_activity": 0.993015, "balance": 2.50714, "dry_up": 1.215709, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089564, "annualized_volatility": 0.304516, "from_high_reference": -0.420476, "from_low_reference": 0.15183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.743745, "fair_value_reference": 22.517993, "structural_low": 20.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.006958, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.024404, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.31432, "worst_return": -0.25021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022936, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.043187, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.56441, "worst_return": -0.317856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016875, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.530837, "worst_return": -0.247613, "sufficient": true 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66.729421, "activity_lines": [ 22.592666, 23.481339, 23.896534, 24.448141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.01, "volume": 588166194, "typical_volume": 383593365.55, "trend": 25.25347, "fair_value": 22.413566, "relative_strength": -16.262323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.815123, "energy": 57.197683, "activity_lines": [ 22.670666, 23.276211, 23.787261, 24.289784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.67, "volume": 506857421, "typical_volume": 391173701.9, "trend": 25.083038, "fair_value": 22.443854, "relative_strength": -17.581638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.552594, "energy": 38.321335, "activity_lines": [ 22.635333, 23.051273, 23.664552, 24.123109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.1, "volume": 472107554, "typical_volume": 399112416.2, "trend": 24.918334, "fair_value": 22.47783, "relative_strength": -14.475555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.800619, "energy": 30.087425, "activity_lines": [ 22.826667, 22.949636, 23.594755, 23.995171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.290001, "volume": 402133463, "typical_volume": 404962106.65, "trend": 24.743745, "fair_value": 22.517993, "relative_strength": -17.842293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.689007, "energy": 21.201187, "activity_lines": [ 23.03, 22.924, 23.552161, 23.890117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }