{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42887b0e-ac86-4eb1-a5bd-dd948d28b4c5", "symbol": "ATED3", "name": "ATOM EDUC ON", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.529, "architecture_energy": 81.904, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.948, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.92, "rotation_up": 11.65, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 39.34, "rotation_down": 79.82, "downward_expansion": 96.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.532, 1.635818, 1.866714, 1.975462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.48, "trend_reference": 2.066333, "distance_from_trend": -0.283755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.855057, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.896535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301887, "excess_performance": -0.244838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.283755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14700, "relative_activity": 0.1367, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.20319, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137214, "annualized_volatility": 0.332871, "from_high_reference": -0.410359, "from_low_reference": 0.233333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.066333, "fair_value_reference": 1.855057, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08642, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 1.47, "volume": 2764300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 1.59, "volume": 1411300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.010787, "energy": 88.926878, "activity_lines": [ 1.702667, 1.839091, 2.040095, 2.089419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.57, "volume": 33600, "typical_volume": 157015.0, "trend": 2.103, "fair_value": 1.863765, "relative_strength": -30.79718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.710188, "energy": 86.866464, "activity_lines": [ 1.640667, 1.768, 1.98519, 2.054108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.49, "volume": 19000, "typical_volume": 116615.0, "trend": 2.086, "fair_value": 1.859419, "relative_strength": -35.0956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.425747, "energy": 89.245012, "activity_lines": [ 1.578, 1.696364, 1.924714, 2.014559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.48, "volume": 14700, "typical_volume": 107535.0, "trend": 2.066333, "fair_value": 1.855057, "relative_strength": -32.896535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.529413, "energy": 81.904337, "activity_lines": [ 1.532, 1.635818, 1.866714, 1.975462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }