{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4288a361-7adb-47cb-9c9d-42a5d024744b", "symbol": "300421", "name": "Jiangsu LiXing General Steel Ball Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.713, "architecture_energy": 69.106, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.988, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 13.32, "upward_expansion": 14.23, "deceleration": 42.3, "rotation_down": 69.86, "downward_expansion": 87.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.728667, 17.707273, 20.057558, 21.577 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.66, "trend_reference": 24.186692, "distance_from_trend": -0.269846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.997307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.407501, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.381002, "excess_performance": -0.388402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.738519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.381002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34117239, "relative_activity": 0.692031, "balance": 0.816918, "dry_up": 0.805562, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154732, "annualized_volatility": 0.627177, "from_high_reference": -0.547296, "from_low_reference": 0.258731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.186692, "fair_value_reference": 14.997307, "structural_low": 14.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028536, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.041186, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.454637, "worst_return": -0.215705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064428, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.081413, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.743439, "worst_return": -0.31294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.140069, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.178214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32206, "worst_return": 0.003328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.05017, "energy": 68.757467, "activity_lines": [ 19.667333, 20.950855, 22.470049, 23.940705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.83, "volume": 41101128, "typical_volume": 49965372.7, "trend": 25.659359, "fair_value": 14.888158, "relative_strength": -30.826678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.003075, "energy": 66.616497, "activity_lines": [ 18.362667, 19.745682, 21.743426, 23.276532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.16, "volume": 40661056, "typical_volume": 49317680.85, "trend": 25.259359, "fair_value": 14.914656, "relative_strength": -33.782873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.7574, "energy": 65.380961, "activity_lines": [ 17.124, 18.622929, 21.008946, 22.599154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.58, "volume": 42977853, "typical_volume": 49293504.6, "trend": 24.824026, "fair_value": 14.950808, "relative_strength": -26.356163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.102432, "energy": 66.074504, "activity_lines": [ 16.700667, 17.965208, 20.461323, 22.039195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.66, "volume": 34117239, "typical_volume": 49300151.95, "trend": 24.186692, "fair_value": 14.997307, "relative_strength": -25.407501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.712734, "energy": 69.105693, "activity_lines": [ 16.728667, 17.707273, 20.057558, 21.577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }