{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "428a6e27-80e0-4456-9078-f014c303a7a5",
    "symbol": "SEG",
    "name": "Sports Entertainment Group Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-10-09",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 59.07,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -38.22,
    "architecture_energy": 56.457,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.817,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.387,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.63,
        "rotation_up": 19.32,
        "upward_expansion": 19.33,
        "deceleration": 48.49,
        "rotation_down": 68.7,
        "downward_expansion": 61.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.254333,
        0.262545,
        0.286619,
        0.291774
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.255,
    "trend_reference": 0.290667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.122706,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.228374,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116587,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.726488,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.02,
    "excess_performance": 0.04723,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.122706,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017767,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.116587,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.466447,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057265,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.336973,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.739448,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 739132,
      "relative_activity": 7.129194,
      "balance": 0.739448,
      "dry_up": 2.776231,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.089744,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.402821,
      "from_high_reference": -0.310811,
      "from_low_reference": 0.342105
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.290667,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.228374,
      "structural_low": 0.19,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.02174,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014351,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.115386,
        "worst_return": -0.055556,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.071071,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002502,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.076924,
        "worst_return": 0.065219,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.094847,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056488,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.233174,
        "worst_return": -0.043479,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.043479,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.037408,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.043479,
        "worst_return": 0.043479,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "violet",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.148939,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-11-10",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.130432,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.052194,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.098039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.106383,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "violet",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.060001,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.148935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.029851,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.074075,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.125001,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.070175,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-14",
        "end": "2026-09-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.068966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-09-11",
        "end": "2026-10-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055556,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-10-20",
        "close": 0.161116,
        "volume": 12064,
        "typical_volume": 50893.85,
        "trend": 0.168501,
        "fair_value": 0.195625,
        "relative_strength": -5.441776,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 5.593821,
        "energy": 13.876443,
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-27",
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        "fair_value": 0.216783,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 67603.8,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 63530.9,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "typical_volume": 61935.1,
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        "relative_strength": 5.326949,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
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        "typical_volume": 74035.1,
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        "relative_strength": 1.569337,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
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        "typical_volume": 70246.25,
        "trend": 0.290741,
        "fair_value": 0.224984,
        "relative_strength": -3.359305,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.429818,
        "energy": 42.12722,
        "activity_lines": [
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          0.303871
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "close": 0.27,
        "volume": 121023,
        "typical_volume": 74572.6,
        "trend": 0.291444,
        "fair_value": 0.225734,
        "relative_strength": -3.994555,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.660123,
        "energy": 52.873375,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.278333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
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        "volume": 115368,
        "typical_volume": 62595.3,
        "trend": 0.292148,
        "fair_value": 0.226432,
        "relative_strength": -0.922438,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.144215,
        "energy": 64.054055,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.273667,
          0.29,
          0.306238,
          0.301149
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "close": 0.265,
        "volume": 122742,
        "typical_volume": 62999.05,
        "trend": 0.2915,
        "fair_value": 0.226943,
        "relative_strength": -2.460335,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.740562,
        "energy": 64.861959,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.269667,
          0.282545,
          0.302095,
          0.299398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "close": 0.26,
        "volume": 5199,
        "typical_volume": 55938.55,
        "trend": 0.291,
        "fair_value": 0.227422,
        "relative_strength": -3.398313,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.494815,
        "energy": 58.758042,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.265667,
          0.275636,
          0.297548,
          0.297366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "close": 0.24,
        "volume": 284250,
        "typical_volume": 67158.2,
        "trend": 0.290667,
        "fair_value": 0.227747,
        "relative_strength": -10.892949,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -56.902929,
        "energy": 71.370447,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.256333,
          0.266909,
          0.291262,
          0.294075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "close": 0.255,
        "volume": 739132,
        "typical_volume": 103676.8,
        "trend": 0.290667,
        "fair_value": 0.228374,
        "relative_strength": -5.726488,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.220393,
        "energy": 56.456523,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.254333,
          0.262545,
          0.286619,
          0.291774
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}