{ "ticker": { "uuid": "428b4f48-4dec-4871-adc0-62fb54cadd5f", "symbol": "TTK", "name": "TAKKT AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.02, "architecture_energy": 31.762, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.771, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.21, "rotation_up": 27.19, "upward_expansion": 16.43, "deceleration": 46.76, "rotation_down": 33.92, "downward_expansion": 64.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.355333, 2.332818, 2.400452, 2.511828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.475, "trend_reference": 2.755167, "distance_from_trend": -0.101688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.423354, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.666593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.720988, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.320055, "excess_performance": -0.384695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.666593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022708, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09754, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.310489, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43492, "relative_activity": 0.587833, "balance": 1.310489, "dry_up": 0.59526, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066511, "annualized_volatility": 0.411467, "from_high_reference": -0.538246, "from_low_reference": 0.151163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.755167, "fair_value_reference": 7.423354, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.028152, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": -0.033861, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.248421, "worst_return": -0.294595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.132721, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.204394, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.136929, "worst_return": -0.305556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.203298, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.304802, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.220339, "worst_return": -0.423197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 144630.9, "trend": 2.891667, "fair_value": 7.591215, "relative_strength": -38.14216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.438572, "energy": 58.500665, "activity_lines": [ 2.292333, 2.329, 2.436024, 2.605591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.315, "volume": 28353, "typical_volume": 128639.95, "trend": 2.845667, "fair_value": 7.533721, "relative_strength": -37.161858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.420722, "energy": 52.134583, "activity_lines": [ 2.297, 2.317182, 2.417643, 2.568387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.29, "volume": 28814, "typical_volume": 113398.25, "trend": 2.796, "fair_value": 7.478497, "relative_strength": -37.986491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.049731, "energy": 48.42173, "activity_lines": [ 2.296333, 2.306455, 2.399476, 2.532538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.475, "volume": 43492, "typical_volume": 73987.0, "trend": 2.755167, "fair_value": 7.423354, "relative_strength": -33.720988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.020095, "energy": 31.761929, "activity_lines": [ 2.355333, 2.332818, 2.400452, 2.511828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }