{ "ticker": { "uuid": "428c488f-e3c7-4318-834e-cfd21aae80f3", "symbol": "VCV", "name": "Invesco California Value Municipal Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.354, "architecture_energy": 5.371, "architecture_maturity": 19.63, "architecture_confidence": 47.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.44, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 24.59, "deceleration": 62.76, "rotation_down": 38.3, "downward_expansion": 31.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.609735, 10.634046, 10.599867, 10.595742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.63, "trend_reference": 10.630758, "distance_from_trend": -7.1e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.404804, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.499817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020387, "excess_performance": -0.146011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -7.1e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002728, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.162512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 474685, "relative_activity": 0.998498, "balance": 2.162512, "dry_up": 1.140289, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017989, "annualized_volatility": 0.094328, "from_high_reference": -0.040991, "from_low_reference": 0.124668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.630758, "fair_value_reference": 9.404804, "structural_low": 10.075309, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.002647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012942, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.085187, "worst_return": -0.118331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004375, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.045601, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.122619, "worst_return": -0.160351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01266, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04311, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.094185, "worst_return": -0.201337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063759, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.182948, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078947, "worst_return": -0.237441, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", 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10.602933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.78, "volume": 490049, "typical_volume": 462326.55, "trend": 10.644695, "fair_value": 9.356011, "relative_strength": -4.962852, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.940641, "energy": 47.326673, "activity_lines": [ 10.734229, 10.66926, 10.596198, 10.61241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.49, "volume": 581332, "typical_volume": 462219.45, "trend": 10.645655, "fair_value": 9.37137, "relative_strength": -6.885462, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.238841, "energy": 17.237138, "activity_lines": [ 10.663823, 10.645896, 10.590235, 10.602429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.55, "volume": 622304, "typical_volume": 471281.75, "trend": 10.637999, "fair_value": 9.387857, "relative_strength": -7.196125, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.529063, "energy": 12.773779, "activity_lines": [ 10.620553, 10.633731, 10.59112, 10.596258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.63, "volume": 474685, "typical_volume": 475399.1, "trend": 10.630758, "fair_value": 9.404804, "relative_strength": -9.499817, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.354347, "energy": 5.370596, "activity_lines": [ 10.609735, 10.634046, 10.599867, 10.595742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }