{ "ticker": { "uuid": "428d3268-e95e-4507-abb1-f58bce42dc91", "symbol": "OTLK", "name": "OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.005, "architecture_energy": 22.845, "architecture_maturity": 75.451, "architecture_confidence": 78.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.67, "rotation_up": 24.45, "upward_expansion": 61.41, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.54, "downward_expansion": 16.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.171427, 1.298656, 1.05548, 0.873084 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 0.685047, "distance_from_trend": 0.48895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.149408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.754182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.358712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.375408, "excess_performance": 1.187954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.48895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.754182, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213248, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.735338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.375408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.838537, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34218691, "relative_activity": 0.438869, "balance": 5.838537, "dry_up": 0.933633, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.408416, "annualized_volatility": 1.859573, "from_high_reference": -0.699115, "from_low_reference": 5.331471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.685047, "fair_value_reference": 4.149408, "structural_low": 0.1611, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.109439, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.091695, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090323, "worst_return": -0.861288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.270968, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.279912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.156489, "worst_return": -0.737791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.519084, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.573849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.229032, "worst_return": -0.776564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 4.550712, "relative_strength": 23.093683, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.530223, "energy": 54.352942, "activity_lines": [ 1.460333, 1.389273, 1.009994, 0.830134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9766, "volume": 121942184, "typical_volume": 76809374.2, "trend": 0.670713, "fair_value": 4.347998, "relative_strength": -12.818217, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.513062, "energy": 35.484433, "activity_lines": [ 1.2842, 1.34608, 1.032057, 0.850549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 34218691, "typical_volume": 77970095.45, "trend": 0.685047, "fair_value": 4.149408, "relative_strength": -11.358712, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.005347, "energy": 22.845193, "activity_lines": [ 1.171427, 1.298656, 1.05548, 0.873084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }