{ "ticker": { "uuid": "428e1df9-83b2-4f65-9b74-ddaa86ad5b77", "symbol": "ROPE", "name": "COASTAL COMPASS 100 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.518, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.479, "architecture_energy": 55.245, "architecture_maturity": 22.482, "architecture_confidence": 77.291, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.81, "rotation_up": 64.55, "upward_expansion": 83.74, "deceleration": 57.78, "rotation_down": 19.48, "downward_expansion": 8.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.31766, 30.162321, 29.742833, 29.428188 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.4319, "trend_reference": 29.081956, "distance_from_trend": 0.046419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.443399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150832, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.547738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027583, "excess_performance": -0.098042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039813, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150832, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02373, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027583, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.10284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11175, "relative_activity": 0.577449, "balance": 5.10284, "dry_up": 0.488558, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019754, "annualized_volatility": 0.098315, "from_high_reference": -0.018642, "from_low_reference": 0.218066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.081956, "fair_value_reference": 26.443399, "structural_low": 27.624151, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.019041, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005406, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.019041, "worst_return": 0.019041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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7371, "typical_volume": 19093.55, "trend": 28.895692, "fair_value": 26.352346, "relative_strength": 1.997653, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.256703, "energy": 80.686401, "activity_lines": [ 30.276962, 30.00206, 29.528644, 29.257456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.1033, "volume": 5431, "typical_volume": 19134.15, "trend": 28.993163, "fair_value": 26.396475, "relative_strength": -0.234682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.509419, "energy": 61.454189, "activity_lines": [ 30.25028, 30.059026, 29.624974, 29.335366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.4319, "volume": 11175, "typical_volume": 19352.35, "trend": 29.081956, "fair_value": 26.443399, "relative_strength": -2.547738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.478906, "energy": 55.244826, "activity_lines": [ 30.31766, 30.162321, 29.742833, 29.428188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }