{ "ticker": { "uuid": "428f3f2f-a8ec-46af-bec0-624d6bcbd5f1", "symbol": "2838", "name": "Hang Seng Investment Index Funds Series III - Hang Seng FTSE China 50 Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.829, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.99, "architecture_energy": 26.972, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.101, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.79, "rotation_up": 47.04, "upward_expansion": 24.09, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 16.36, "downward_expansion": 55.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 161.493338, 157.297713, 158.722507, 160.880578 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 164.100006, "trend_reference": 164.793308, "distance_from_trend": -0.004207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 153.23463, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.592578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067084, "excess_performance": -0.033502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.087128, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.156073, "balance": 5.087128, "dry_up": 1.190058, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031534, "annualized_volatility": 0.187237, "from_high_reference": -0.131516, "from_low_reference": 0.149965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 164.793308, "fair_value_reference": 153.23463, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.842695, "energy": 67.107235, "activity_lines": [ 151.331333, 153.488692, 158.16678, 161.476809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 158.350006, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 1416.45, "trend": 165.719975, "fair_value": 153.038183, "relative_strength": -4.613945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.670754, "energy": 42.982539, "activity_lines": [ 154.033335, 153.884648, 157.914879, 160.965951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 165.550003, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 1356.45, "trend": 165.253308, "fair_value": 153.143324, "relative_strength": -3.690037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.207453, "energy": 22.363002, "activity_lines": [ 158.76667, 155.745686, 158.385598, 160.954985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.100006, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1281.45, "trend": 164.793308, "fair_value": 153.23463, "relative_strength": -3.592578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.989517, "energy": 26.971779, "activity_lines": [ 161.493338, 157.297713, 158.722507, 160.880578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }