{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42948d1c-3139-4077-a958-c70ff8c1f4b2", "symbol": "114800", "name": "Samsung Kodex Inverse ETF - Equity-Derivatives", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.732, "architecture_energy": 25.424, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.174, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.36, "rotation_up": 31.15, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.9, "downward_expansion": 54.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1098.466667, 1045.890909, 1074.490476, 1194.787097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1137.0, "trend_reference": 1384.533333, "distance_from_trend": -0.178785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3576.801282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.682118, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -60.565755, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.414822, "excess_performance": -0.644651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.682118, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019373, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.605658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.414822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.121269, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5486335515, "relative_activity": 1.998754, "balance": 1.121269, "dry_up": 1.933904, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11941, "annualized_volatility": 0.502468, "from_high_reference": -0.684605, "from_low_reference": 0.373188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1384.533333, "fair_value_reference": 3576.801282, "structural_low": 828.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.030635, "positive_rate": 0.258065, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": -0.06531, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.289872, "worst_return": -0.227371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.028769, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.052215, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.093791, "worst_return": -0.385036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037234, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049889, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.067371, "worst_return": -0.610584, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1125.0, "volume": 4142594523, "typical_volume": 2259175704.8, "trend": 1463.766667, "fair_value": 3620.596154, "relative_strength": -66.165364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.124273, "energy": 39.159228, "activity_lines": [ 1060.066667, 1011.363636, 1098.466667, 1239.995699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1046.0, "volume": 7275541687, "typical_volume": 2532776379.15, "trend": 1419.966667, "fair_value": 3598.519231, "relative_strength": -66.817367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.927562, "energy": 26.321712, "activity_lines": [ 1068.733333, 1020.163636, 1080.561905, 1213.043011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1137.0, "volume": 5486335515, "typical_volume": 2744878154.9, "trend": 1384.533333, "fair_value": 3576.801282, "relative_strength": -60.565755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.732051, "energy": 25.424238, "activity_lines": [ 1098.466667, 1045.890909, 1074.490476, 1194.787097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }