{ "ticker": { "uuid": "429887c2-3467-4f25-9d2f-3205c0e061c1", "symbol": "MIO", "name": "Macarthur Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.116, "architecture_energy": 36.003, "architecture_maturity": 72.652, "architecture_confidence": 63.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.79, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 62.08, "rotation_down": 47.41, "downward_expansion": 68.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021333, 0.0212, 0.022867, 0.024338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.026267, "distance_from_trend": -0.200508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.062994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.666633, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.988107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322581, "excess_performance": -0.386286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.666633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024303, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.159116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.159116, "dry_up": 0.383134, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.870633, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.026267, "fair_value_reference": 0.062994, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.05883, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.757576, "worst_return": -0.32, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.148649, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.154613, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 1.115385, "worst_return": -0.513514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.243243, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.303491, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.055556, "worst_return": -0.678571, "sufficient": true }, { 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.909751, "energy": 70.996303, "activity_lines": [ 0.021133, 0.022691, 0.024505, 0.025781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.019, "volume": 233386, "typical_volume": 376280.55, "trend": 0.026567, "fair_value": 0.066615, "relative_strength": -36.655916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.939069, "energy": 71.624071, "activity_lines": [ 0.0204, 0.021818, 0.023829, 0.025292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 283261, "typical_volume": 387653.25, "trend": 0.026667, "fair_value": 0.065417, "relative_strength": -23.491569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.063553, "energy": 39.612649, "activity_lines": [ 0.021333, 0.021764, 0.02359, 0.025062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 10107, "typical_volume": 366917.35, "trend": 0.026567, "fair_value": 0.064205, "relative_strength": -31.923887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.223607, "energy": 32.755217, "activity_lines": [ 0.021467, 0.021418, 0.0232, 0.024697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 343714.35, "trend": 0.026267, "fair_value": 0.062994, "relative_strength": -33.988107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.115765, "energy": 36.003382, "activity_lines": [ 0.021333, 0.0212, 0.022867, 0.024338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }