{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "429b646d-508b-4450-97ed-0229124bb7b4",
    "symbol": "KCC",
    "name": "Kincora Copper Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -30.258,
    "architecture_energy": 15.894,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.533,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.631,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.74,
        "rotation_up": 29.99,
        "upward_expansion": 17.78,
        "deceleration": 40.27,
        "rotation_down": 26.04,
        "downward_expansion": 58.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.849333,
        0.829545,
        0.847631,
        0.87979
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.88,
    "trend_reference": 0.928083,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.051809,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.566138,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.554392,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.018696,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.035294,
    "excess_performance": -0.028412,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051809,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073692,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.554392,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.140765,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.110187,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.217711,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035294,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.73959,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 155939,
      "relative_activity": 1.457409,
      "balance": 0.73959,
      "dry_up": 0.853923,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.119318,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.702335,
      "from_high_reference": -0.405405,
      "from_low_reference": 0.466667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.928083,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.566138,
      "structural_low": 0.7,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.007143,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.388889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010061,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.576923,
        "worst_return": -0.27027,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.00399,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016799,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.423077,
        "worst_return": -0.434783,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.135135,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.142196,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.214286,
        "worst_return": -0.195652,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.467742,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.295788,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 2.324324,
        "worst_return": -0.446429,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-09",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.162162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.285714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.366071,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.076923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.135135,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 330985.9,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 0.956583,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 0.559119,
        "relative_strength": -7.995783,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 54.556176,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.76,
        "volume": 56579,
        "typical_volume": 243446.8,
        "trend": 0.94575,
        "fair_value": 0.560016,
        "relative_strength": -18.022084,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.963074,
        "energy": 51.686125,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.794,
          0.816909,
          0.851595,
          0.895591
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.81,
        "volume": 65980,
        "typical_volume": 142982.05,
        "trend": 0.939417,
        "fair_value": 0.560913,
        "relative_strength": -12.735349,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.943467,
        "energy": 34.36516,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.798667,
          0.810955,
          0.844202,
          0.886833
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.885,
        "volume": 86972,
        "typical_volume": 118076.85,
        "trend": 0.93475,
        "fair_value": 0.563446,
        "relative_strength": -7.204984,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.447283,
        "energy": 20.541219,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.831,
          0.820455,
          0.84581,
          0.883323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.88,
        "volume": 155939,
        "typical_volume": 106997.4,
        "trend": 0.928083,
        "fair_value": 0.566138,
        "relative_strength": -11.018696,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.257814,
        "energy": 15.894209,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.849333,
          0.829545,
          0.847631,
          0.87979
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}