{ "ticker": { "uuid": "429dddaa-81f0-4d88-806f-0c0ea79f0a98", "symbol": "TAN", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II SOLAR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.461, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.934, "architecture_energy": 53.118, "architecture_maturity": 12.496, "architecture_confidence": 70.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.14, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 44.96, "rotation_down": 68.16, "downward_expansion": 60.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.844667, 53.993091, 57.542286, 57.676581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.75, "trend_reference": 57.411667, "distance_from_trend": -0.081197, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.57715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.62974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086422, "excess_performance": -0.212047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8597776, "relative_activity": 1.310871, "balance": 0.66133, "dry_up": 0.950001, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110485, "annualized_volatility": 0.366719, "from_high_reference": -0.302249, "from_low_reference": 0.460665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.411667, "fair_value_reference": 44.57715, "structural_low": 47.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.224793, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.16671, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224793, "worst_return": 0.224793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.19414, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19414, "worst_return": 0.19414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.167844, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167844, "worst_return": 0.167844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.340045, 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"activity_lines": [ 55.505333, 58.829636, 59.711571, 58.887312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.28, "volume": 2415802, "typical_volume": 6225592.35, "trend": 57.405667, "fair_value": 44.716518, "relative_strength": -8.700986, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.309179, "energy": 47.61649, "activity_lines": [ 53.758, 56.98, 58.987762, 58.493075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.33, "volume": 10885043, "typical_volume": 6444086.7, "trend": 57.33, "fair_value": 44.633005, "relative_strength": -13.273026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.473841, "energy": 57.502689, "activity_lines": [ 51.980667, 55.024545, 58.087762, 57.972065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.75, "volume": 8597776, "typical_volume": 6558827.8, "trend": 57.411667, "fair_value": 44.57715, "relative_strength": -10.62974, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.933544, "energy": 53.117627, "activity_lines": [ 51.844667, 53.993091, 57.542286, 57.676581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }