{ "ticker": { "uuid": "429e51f7-5122-4d4e-ad00-85b219d055e2", "symbol": "SMH", "name": "VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.609, "architecture_energy": 27.681, "architecture_maturity": 74.969, "architecture_confidence": 93.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.24, "rotation_up": 19.88, "upward_expansion": 55.23, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 32.66, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.5084, 95.743055, 93.265558, 86.665744 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 93.714996, "trend_reference": 78.121334, "distance_from_trend": 0.199608, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.064333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.766064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 33.732402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.579635, "excess_performance": 0.526323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.199608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.238521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.766064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.337324, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.579635, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62571, "relative_activity": 1.186489, "balance": 1.147923, "dry_up": 1.686236, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084872, "annualized_volatility": 0.37611, "from_high_reference": -0.13348, "from_low_reference": 1.321689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.121334, "fair_value_reference": 53.064333, "structural_low": 55.186001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.78804, "energy": 41.929141, "activity_lines": [ 96.216602, 98.195838, 92.032648, 84.770265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.388, "volume": 146212, "typical_volume": 50270.6, "trend": 76.9252, "fair_value": 52.636432, "relative_strength": 30.852965, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.761451, "energy": 27.625135, "activity_lines": [ 92.992335, 96.461128, 92.463867, 85.582532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.714996, "volume": 62571, "typical_volume": 52736.25, "trend": 78.121334, "fair_value": 53.064333, "relative_strength": 33.732402, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.609496, "energy": 27.680695, "activity_lines": [ 92.5084, 95.743055, 93.265558, 86.665744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }