{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42a1330b-b9ae-42af-bcd8-a53033bebb68", "symbol": "BNP", "name": "BNP Paribas SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.52, "architecture_energy": 94.452, "architecture_maturity": 47.642, "architecture_confidence": 82.791, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 82.98, "upward_expansion": 97.25, "deceleration": 42.0, "rotation_down": 11.01, "downward_expansion": 21.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.158667, 105.169637, 99.633475, 95.956173 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 112.440002, "trend_reference": 92.124176, "distance_from_trend": 0.220527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.690622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.71166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.910415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.242474, "excess_performance": 0.189163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.220527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115396, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.71166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.26169, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.249104, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.242474, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.266707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7299645, "relative_activity": 0.896379, "balance": 3.266707, "dry_up": 1.00592, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035425, "annualized_volatility": 0.278462, "from_high_reference": -0.010386, "from_low_reference": 0.777853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.124176, "fair_value_reference": 65.690622, "structural_low": 76.560049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009297, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": 0.004357, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.164883, "worst_return": -0.266019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02778, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.051791, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.263089, "worst_return": -0.253318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.140618, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.086703, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.247662, "worst_return": -0.142771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 19.682273, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.433609, "energy": 86.403738, "activity_lines": [ 101.162, 98.243523, 93.569482, 91.401984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.940002, "volume": 6746208, "typical_volume": 9281348.45, "trend": 89.278558, "fair_value": 64.538002, "relative_strength": 20.496959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.73948, "energy": 83.291491, "activity_lines": [ 101.624, 99.416364, 94.679168, 92.269735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.919998, "volume": 10801942, "typical_volume": 8963903.5, "trend": 90.202512, "fair_value": 64.898028, "relative_strength": 23.949769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.914234, "energy": 83.960721, "activity_lines": [ 103.062666, 101.076, 96.124139, 93.343377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.459999, "volume": 7918966, "typical_volume": 8656280.25, "trend": 91.199144, "fair_value": 65.285463, "relative_strength": 25.236913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.091276, "energy": 86.14665, "activity_lines": [ 105.391999, 103.029454, 97.801222, 94.585795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.440002, "volume": 7299645, "typical_volume": 8143481.55, "trend": 92.124176, "fair_value": 65.690622, "relative_strength": 24.910415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.519547, "energy": 94.452419, "activity_lines": [ 108.158667, 105.169637, 99.633475, 95.956173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }