{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42a66976-de84-41a4-8bcb-baaafd93b8aa", "symbol": "002568", "name": "Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.542, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.502, "architecture_energy": 23.333, "architecture_maturity": 12.931, "architecture_confidence": 44.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.62, "rotation_up": 56.89, "upward_expansion": 39.71, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 18.09, "downward_expansion": 17.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.101333, 18.342909, 18.095291, 18.143641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.48, "trend_reference": 18.620639, "distance_from_trend": 0.046151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.781867, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144934, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.107808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045098, "excess_performance": -0.052498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.253211, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.98697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95803702, "relative_activity": 1.668062, "balance": 0.98697, "dry_up": 1.708003, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104057, "annualized_volatility": 0.532105, "from_high_reference": -0.336964, "from_low_reference": 0.243934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.620639, "fair_value_reference": 22.781867, "structural_low": 15.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023003, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.0666, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.111409, "worst_return": -0.170971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069212, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10743, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266279, "worst_return": -0.238032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102586, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.194633, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.553292, "worst_return": -0.427421, 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17.663081, 18.214363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 68835896, "typical_volume": 43860350.9, "trend": 18.957306, "fair_value": 23.19424, "relative_strength": -28.998654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.675078, "energy": 44.220367, "activity_lines": [ 16.968001, 17.504537, 17.604846, 18.09587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 106764689, "typical_volume": 47691626.8, "trend": 18.866639, "fair_value": 23.084363, "relative_strength": -16.512306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.018801, "energy": 31.23888, "activity_lines": [ 17.282667, 17.606248, 17.655755, 18.053463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.610001, "volume": 85460758, "typical_volume": 50051815.05, "trend": 18.727306, "fair_value": 22.970813, "relative_strength": -19.040695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.635194, "energy": 20.056601, "activity_lines": [ 17.504667, 17.579911, 17.646045, 17.97239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.6, "volume": 104361488, "typical_volume": 53873407.5, "trend": 18.698306, "fair_value": 22.879305, "relative_strength": -3.060755, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.972328, "energy": 15.398832, "activity_lines": [ 18.652, 18.093571, 17.928382, 18.093209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.48, "volume": 95803702, "typical_volume": 57434123.2, "trend": 18.620639, "fair_value": 22.781867, "relative_strength": -12.107808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.501766, "energy": 23.333332, "activity_lines": [ 19.101333, 18.342909, 18.095291, 18.143641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }