{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42a6dbde-8ef6-40fd-8361-5a2e3007130f", "symbol": "ERKA", "name": "Erika Carmel-Tech Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.89, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.669, "architecture_energy": 26.694, "architecture_maturity": 43.767, "architecture_confidence": 59.61, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.06, "rotation_up": 8.34, "upward_expansion": 16.11, "deceleration": 59.42, "rotation_down": 59.84, "downward_expansion": 60.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.499533, 0.512036, 0.511531, 0.509095 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.486, "trend_reference": 0.514833, "distance_from_trend": -0.056005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.618654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214423, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.474221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128251, "excess_performance": -0.157151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031721, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66393, "relative_activity": 1.249966, "balance": 0.976357, "dry_up": 0.782412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078822, "annualized_volatility": 0.388535, "from_high_reference": -0.372903, "from_low_reference": 0.296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.514833, "fair_value_reference": 0.618654, "structural_low": 0.425, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0163, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.020546, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.448276, "worst_return": -0.21134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094386, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.372093, "worst_return": -0.266355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104082, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011901, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.432203, "worst_return": -0.264984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.378098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.100946, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023411, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119874, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.231343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 0.5206, 0.524455, 0.514752, 0.512673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.494, "volume": 13353, "typical_volume": 51265.75, "trend": 0.5178, "fair_value": 0.618551, "relative_strength": -17.003034, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.647595, "energy": 11.943629, "activity_lines": [ 0.509933, 0.518727, 0.513586, 0.511146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.486, "volume": 66393, "typical_volume": 53115.85, "trend": 0.514833, "fair_value": 0.618654, "relative_strength": -17.474221, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.668745, "energy": 26.69369, "activity_lines": [ 0.499533, 0.512036, 0.511531, 0.509095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }