{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42a737b4-e12a-4477-bda6-287107aa48fc", "symbol": "XDWM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.519, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.369, "architecture_energy": 12.085, "architecture_maturity": 10.205, "architecture_confidence": 66.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.36, "rotation_up": 30.08, "upward_expansion": 25.97, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 40.51, "downward_expansion": 29.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.432333, 77.268455, 77.849929, 77.802527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 80.900002, "trend_reference": 77.679333, "distance_from_trend": 0.041461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.964335, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.726397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049627, "excess_performance": -0.001608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027264, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32844, "relative_activity": 0.757102, "balance": 1.115491, "dry_up": 0.632486, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034539, "annualized_volatility": 0.250945, "from_high_reference": -0.034376, "from_low_reference": 0.304208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.679333, "fair_value_reference": 62.964335, "structural_low": 68.360001, "invalidation": "A 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"energy": 10.582175, "activity_lines": [ 77.301, 77.932818, 78.113476, 77.854194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.074997, "volume": 20003, "typical_volume": 46991.6, "trend": 77.021666, "fair_value": 62.538246, "relative_strength": -1.674976, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.966645, "energy": 31.047287, "activity_lines": [ 76.419666, 77.334727, 77.842548, 77.74158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.980003, "volume": 30612, "typical_volume": 45594.8, "trend": 77.205, "fair_value": 62.663342, "relative_strength": -1.799531, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.616723, "energy": 34.655926, "activity_lines": [ 76.126, 76.989909, 77.697167, 77.674376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.699997, "volume": 26293, "typical_volume": 44039.4, "trend": 77.408666, "fair_value": 62.793342, "relative_strength": -3.445598, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.317423, "energy": 44.76712, "activity_lines": [ 75.871666, 76.632818, 77.527738, 77.577279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.900002, "volume": 32844, "typical_volume": 43381.2, "trend": 77.679333, "fair_value": 62.964335, "relative_strength": 2.726397, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.368661, "energy": 12.085479, "activity_lines": [ 77.432333, 77.268455, 77.849929, 77.802527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }