{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42a7c6a9-6b25-46b3-b67c-7fa779d9f250", "symbol": "002267", "name": "Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.162, "architecture_energy": 24.955, "architecture_maturity": 81.58, "architecture_confidence": 73.508, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.3, "rotation_up": 36.67, "upward_expansion": 21.73, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 18.98, "downward_expansion": 53.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.186667, 7.065754, 7.158626, 7.322792 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.08, "trend_reference": 7.50999, "distance_from_trend": -0.057256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.296317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029647, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.177061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115, "excess_performance": -0.1224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029647, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097448, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586408, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36413314, "relative_activity": 1.017029, "balance": 0.586408, "dry_up": 1.136985, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04508, "annualized_volatility": 0.173364, "from_high_reference": -0.260188, "from_low_reference": 0.082569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.50999, "fair_value_reference": 7.296317, "structural_low": 6.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.04144, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.054585, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.122754, "worst_return": -0.103546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092926, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.060387, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.268371, "worst_return": -0.128134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114671, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.154752, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.255439, "worst_return": -0.058594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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6.87, "volume": 31529488, "typical_volume": 57736050.3, "trend": 7.551323, "fair_value": 7.290864, "relative_strength": -21.102717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.128239, "energy": 77.817543, "activity_lines": [ 6.811333, 6.94731, 7.240096, 7.406489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.16, "volume": 46213006, "typical_volume": 58165466.25, "trend": 7.54099, "fair_value": 7.292278, "relative_strength": -9.110018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.011984, "energy": 49.275487, "activity_lines": [ 6.925725, 6.957417, 7.208574, 7.381242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.23, "volume": 49365889, "typical_volume": 46413145.45, "trend": 7.52999, "fair_value": 7.29386, "relative_strength": -8.089416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.680005, "energy": 29.732664, "activity_lines": [ 7.052, 6.99054, 7.187718, 7.361178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.38, "volume": 30840601, "typical_volume": 39309028.85, "trend": 7.52499, "fair_value": 7.295612, "relative_strength": -4.255541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.832259, "energy": 24.338674, "activity_lines": [ 7.195333, 7.055717, 7.185672, 7.351501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.08, "volume": 36413314, "typical_volume": 35803631.35, "trend": 7.50999, "fair_value": 7.296317, "relative_strength": -12.177061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.162272, "energy": 24.955389, "activity_lines": [ 7.186667, 7.065754, 7.158626, 7.322792 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }