{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42aa7fb5-35d6-4432-8c0f-838a9ae56ece", "symbol": "9187", "name": "Samsung ETFs Trust II - Samsung S&P High Dividend APAC EX NZ REITs ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.521, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.476, "architecture_energy": 28.313, "architecture_maturity": 95.167, "architecture_confidence": 58.383, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.13, "rotation_up": 47.48, "upward_expansion": 34.8, "deceleration": 47.2, "rotation_down": 19.36, "downward_expansion": 47.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.0916, 2.071055, 2.068743, 2.08111 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.106, "trend_reference": 2.1104, "distance_from_trend": -0.002085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.960386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.714196, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.043597, "excess_performance": -0.010015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074278, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.508475, "dry_up": 0.379464, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012784, "annualized_volatility": 0.141507, "from_high_reference": -0.066489, "from_low_reference": 0.056169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.1104, "fair_value_reference": 1.960386, "structural_low": 1.994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000175, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.114061, "worst_return": -0.096843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022408, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.0323, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.128568, "worst_return": -0.066786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020903, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.016493, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.148282, "worst_return": -0.101606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082827, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.797513, "energy": 78.05062, "activity_lines": [ 2.0416, 2.055891, 2.073743, 2.101979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.032, "volume": 9200, "typical_volume": 1940.0, "trend": 2.131737, "fair_value": 1.95532, "relative_strength": 4.11034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.20232, "energy": 66.55722, "activity_lines": [ 2.0376, 2.048945, 2.067238, 2.095243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.038, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 2070.0, "trend": 2.127133, "fair_value": 1.955796, "relative_strength": 0.87529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.899158, "energy": 69.353489, "activity_lines": [ 2.038267, 2.044764, 2.062238, 2.089196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.062, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2070.0, "trend": 2.122333, "fair_value": 1.956572, "relative_strength": 0.43496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.028368, "energy": 51.867792, "activity_lines": [ 2.044933, 2.045927, 2.060419, 2.084994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.07, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2070.0, "trend": 2.117667, "fair_value": 1.95731, "relative_strength": -0.810149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.16161, "energy": 34.362522, "activity_lines": [ 2.054267, 2.049273, 2.060286, 2.081617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.118, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 2240.0, "trend": 2.1142, "fair_value": 1.958864, "relative_strength": -2.06724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.182379, "energy": 17.164789, "activity_lines": [ 2.0776, 2.0616, 2.065133, 2.081639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.106, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2240.0, "trend": 2.1104, "fair_value": 1.960386, "relative_strength": -1.714196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.475854, "energy": 28.312979, "activity_lines": [ 2.0916, 2.071055, 2.068743, 2.08111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }