{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42ad1ae4-d087-46aa-ab7b-ab18b4ed8dca", "symbol": "601901", "name": "Founder Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.881, "architecture_energy": 6.749, "architecture_maturity": 17.504, "architecture_confidence": 58.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.54, "rotation_up": 26.73, "upward_expansion": 28.98, "deceleration": 40.3, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 46.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.073333, 7.056545, 7.011048, 7.069395 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.04, "trend_reference": 7.221316, "distance_from_trend": -0.025108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.720788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.810907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103176, "excess_performance": -0.059972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087409, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219613409, "relative_activity": 0.861629, "balance": 0.481159, "dry_up": 1.211353, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04906, "annualized_volatility": 0.191411, "from_high_reference": -0.20911, "from_low_reference": 0.091473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.221316, "fair_value_reference": 7.720788, "structural_low": 6.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010043, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.009869, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.175257, "worst_return": -0.082327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015496, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032515, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.121495, "worst_return": -0.151079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002999, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005711, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142496, "worst_return": -0.15763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074454, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014006, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 7.014997, "volume": 217062598, "typical_volume": 121598600.65, "trend": 6.660675, "fair_value": 7.518582, "relative_strength": 3.902477, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"activity_lines": [ 7.088667, 6.978364, 6.990571, 7.103693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.14, "volume": 376450252, "typical_volume": 253585697.95, "trend": 7.271646, "fair_value": 7.7139, "relative_strength": -3.26866, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.669886, "energy": 14.750785, "activity_lines": [ 7.119333, 7.014727, 7.000429, 7.09378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1, "volume": 302118182, "typical_volume": 256097021.45, "trend": 7.246316, "fair_value": 7.71763, "relative_strength": -3.817572, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.845176, "energy": 9.795741, "activity_lines": [ 7.104667, 7.041455, 7.007857, 7.082706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.04, "volume": 219613409, "typical_volume": 254881742.15, "trend": 7.221316, "fair_value": 7.720788, "relative_strength": -6.810907, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.88079, "energy": 6.749117, "activity_lines": [ 7.073333, 7.056545, 7.011048, 7.069395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }