{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42b0852e-7276-4468-9ce8-4f0b0caa583c", "symbol": "MSON-B", "name": "Midsona AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.766, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.784, "architecture_energy": 39.025, "architecture_maturity": 48.383, "architecture_confidence": 52.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.65, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 22.22, "deceleration": 65.36, "rotation_down": 69.42, "downward_expansion": 44.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.063333, 12.882727, 13.187435, 12.900769 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.85, "trend_reference": 12.249087, "distance_from_trend": -0.032581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.987179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.312815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.182327, "excess_performance": 0.120832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032581, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013128, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 738934, "relative_activity": 0.691765, "balance": 0.988225, "dry_up": 0.969134, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093152, "annualized_volatility": 0.497429, "from_high_reference": -0.235484, "from_low_reference": 0.603688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.249087, "fair_value_reference": 8.987179, "structural_low": 10.071739, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071584, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.051535, "worst_return": -0.091633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.109562, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.109562, "worst_return": -0.109562, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.108566, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181165, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.108566, "worst_return": -0.108566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.062366, "energy": 49.202567, "activity_lines": [ 14.436667, 14.279091, 13.608178, 12.904215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.65, "volume": 1207278, "typical_volume": 1059574.8, "trend": 11.930623, "fair_value": 8.900289, "relative_strength": 14.924521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.503719, "energy": 27.100831, "activity_lines": [ 13.856667, 14.031818, 13.575416, 12.959573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.55, "volume": 1661870, "typical_volume": 1105346.75, "trend": 12.035252, "fair_value": 8.928385, "relative_strength": 2.863403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.117991, "energy": 11.525118, "activity_lines": [ 13.053333, 13.583636, 13.430528, 12.935017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.8, "volume": 532779, "typical_volume": 1076180.6, "trend": 12.145594, "fair_value": 8.957406, "relative_strength": 3.214455, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.412205, "energy": 25.08461, "activity_lines": [ 12.473333, 13.213636, 13.307089, 12.91984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.85, "volume": 738934, "typical_volume": 1068186.35, "trend": 12.249087, "fair_value": 8.987179, "relative_strength": 1.312815, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.783678, "energy": 39.025453, "activity_lines": [ 12.063333, 12.882727, 13.187435, 12.900769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }