{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42b1de3a-9eb2-462f-99cb-ae2c3f4f3ea9", "symbol": "002572", "name": "Suofeiya Home Collection Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.639, "architecture_energy": 49.048, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.532, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.13, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 21.46, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 42.84, "downward_expansion": 71.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.166, 8.060909, 8.808665, 9.630907 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.14, "trend_reference": 10.722033, "distance_from_trend": -0.240816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.127762, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.37994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.899302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.410003, "excess_performance": -0.417402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124337, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.37994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.410003, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.599606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59461923, "relative_activity": 1.412274, "balance": 0.599606, "dry_up": 1.582572, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095976, "annualized_volatility": 0.337708, "from_high_reference": -0.429208, "from_low_reference": 0.105978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.722033, "fair_value_reference": 13.127762, "structural_low": 7.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.006053, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.027055, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.302053, "worst_return": -0.213836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0452, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.326639, "worst_return": -0.273624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005307, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.061282, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.321176, "worst_return": -0.104299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048035, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071995, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.049168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082302, 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11.175239, "fair_value": 13.236087, "relative_strength": -32.524369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.992591, "energy": 67.505814, "activity_lines": [ 7.836, 8.187167, 9.331644, 10.176434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.82, "volume": 64134223, "typical_volume": 40378702.65, "trend": 11.008512, "fair_value": 13.197172, "relative_strength": -33.75163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.689349, "energy": 65.661655, "activity_lines": [ 7.836667, 8.025636, 9.102088, 9.959967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.64, "volume": 84022094, "typical_volume": 41895083.55, "trend": 10.871904, "fair_value": 13.165525, "relative_strength": -24.826016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.500587, "energy": 56.712765, "activity_lines": [ 8.125333, 8.075273, 8.970733, 9.807159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.14, "volume": 59461923, "typical_volume": 42103672.0, "trend": 10.722033, "fair_value": 13.127762, "relative_strength": -31.899302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.639259, "energy": 49.047663, "activity_lines": [ 8.166, 8.060909, 8.808665, 9.630907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }