{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42b932f8-4078-4f5f-9fab-dceb7137969b", "symbol": "AGI", "name": "Alamos Gold Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.043, "architecture_energy": 54.831, "architecture_maturity": 33.838, "architecture_confidence": 95.611, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.14, "rotation_up": 23.36, "upward_expansion": 9.02, "deceleration": 51.85, "rotation_down": 59.26, "downward_expansion": 84.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.119333, 30.750343, 34.232628, 36.952385 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.15, "trend_reference": 39.709419, "distance_from_trend": -0.165185, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.568757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.868191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173119, "excess_performance": -0.298744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165185, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039885, "read": "Falling" 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27.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044097, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.001053, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.134242, "worst_return": -0.118746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066007, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.114731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175697, "worst_return": -0.015664, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.017304, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026901, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.028181, "worst_return": -0.06279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.180019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"relative_strength": -28.083374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.40552, "energy": 82.373163, "activity_lines": [ 31.697333, 34.071791, 37.897742, 39.745316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.26, "volume": 20153529, "typical_volume": 19035260.95, "trend": 40.715763, "fair_value": 24.212447, "relative_strength": -29.88233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.865275, "energy": 85.129622, "activity_lines": [ 30.190667, 32.62924, 36.68211, 38.919904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.58, "volume": 18541483, "typical_volume": 18824169.1, "trend": 40.345455, "fair_value": 24.325224, "relative_strength": -26.151018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.683746, "energy": 80.907874, "activity_lines": [ 29.586667, 31.700684, 35.715157, 38.201467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.83, "volume": 29048915, "typical_volume": 19502140.95, "trend": 39.995325, "fair_value": 24.429939, "relative_strength": -31.198933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.854385, "energy": 81.849919, "activity_lines": [ 28.85, 30.646735, 34.677781, 37.394019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.15, "volume": 33707546, "typical_volume": 19844324.7, "trend": 39.709419, "fair_value": 24.568757, "relative_strength": -20.868191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.042888, "energy": 54.830605, "activity_lines": [ 30.119333, 30.750343, 34.232628, 36.952385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }