{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "42b9336b-f553-48d3-b682-1ca8e11c5402",
    "symbol": "MBB",
    "name": "ISHARES MBS ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 68.672,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -57.952,
    "architecture_energy": 59.23,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.576,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.607,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.69,
        "rotation_up": 10.93,
        "upward_expansion": 13.01,
        "deceleration": 37.71,
        "rotation_down": 67.78,
        "downward_expansion": 88.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 93.27,
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    "distance_from_trend": -0.007198,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 88.163866,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057916,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.857005,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.009911,
    "excess_performance": -0.197365,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007198,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000723,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057916,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022303,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.12857,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023828,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009911,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.203074,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9502941,
      "relative_activity": 0.891254,
      "balance": 1.203074,
      "dry_up": 0.962028,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010014,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.049982,
      "from_high_reference": -0.024564,
      "from_low_reference": 0.035329
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 88.163866,
      "structural_low": 92.261712,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
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        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "trend": 94.036864,
        "fair_value": 87.953014,
        "relative_strength": -10.17278,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "direction": -48.173969,
        "energy": 28.385974,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 92.768486,
        "volume": 7858016,
        "typical_volume": 10969877.9,
        "trend": 94.005591,
        "fair_value": 88.018257,
        "relative_strength": -9.09705,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.559879,
        "energy": 53.536214,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 92.579182,
        "volume": 14254459,
        "typical_volume": 10985533.05,
        "trend": 93.975213,
        "fair_value": 88.08716,
        "relative_strength": -9.435444,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.882422,
        "energy": 65.333375,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.987679,
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          93.626261,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 93.27,
        "volume": 9502941,
        "typical_volume": 10662438.95,
        "trend": 93.946244,
        "fair_value": 88.163866,
        "relative_strength": -12.857005,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.952007,
        "energy": 59.229974,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}