{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42b95d47-320f-4f2c-9a03-fc8d6833010c", "symbol": "IUSA", "name": "iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.167, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.93, "architecture_energy": 65.564, "architecture_maturity": 86.182, "architecture_confidence": 63.747, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 53.01, "upward_expansion": 82.42, "deceleration": 71.29, "rotation_down": 28.9, "downward_expansion": 11.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.562666, 65.306189, 64.37764, 62.943255 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.879997, "trend_reference": 61.250104, "distance_from_trend": 0.091916, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.107832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283492, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.324659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153472, "excess_performance": -0.01742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091916, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283492, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033701, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.88371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85310, "relative_activity": 1.548969, "balance": 1.88371, "dry_up": 1.180061, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018715, "annualized_volatility": 0.117001, "from_high_reference": -0.00491, "from_low_reference": 0.241714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.250104, "fair_value_reference": 52.107832, "structural_low": 55.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.012348, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.005039, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.080098, "worst_return": -0.103264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.028572, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.002889, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.125258, "worst_return": -0.177959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073084, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.00358, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.197741, "worst_return": -0.08766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 64.985334, 64.934714, 63.944831, 62.563892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.879997, "volume": 85310, "typical_volume": 55075.35, "trend": 61.250104, "fair_value": 52.107832, "relative_strength": -3.324659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.929925, "energy": 65.564299, "activity_lines": [ 65.562666, 65.306189, 64.37764, 62.943255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }