{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42c1dc4a-abef-420d-8d0a-da38d3775181", "symbol": "XZEU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.678, "architecture_energy": 79.688, "architecture_maturity": 40.219, "architecture_confidence": 86.724, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 61.58, "upward_expansion": 89.51, "deceleration": 50.47, "rotation_down": 26.65, "downward_expansion": 16.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3193.633333, 3177.345455, 3117.077381, 3062.443011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3256.5, "trend_reference": 3007.291667, "distance_from_trend": 0.082868, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2705.628333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203602, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.471656, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110013, "excess_performance": 0.058777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082868, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203602, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082565, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110013, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.384188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9928, "relative_activity": 0.909566, "balance": 1.384188, "dry_up": 1.637456, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01633, "annualized_volatility": 0.158585, "from_high_reference": -0.030449, "from_low_reference": 0.224248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3007.291667, "fair_value_reference": 2705.628333, "structural_low": 2660.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.001214, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.002397, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.061881, "worst_return": -0.097935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002145, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002478, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.080047, "worst_return": -0.070716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030289, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012955, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110949, "worst_return": -0.117308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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65.636334, "energy": 75.579203, "activity_lines": [ 3159.85, 3146.418182, 3078.530952, 3033.591935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3176.75, "volume": 5998, "typical_volume": 13577.7, "trend": 2997.466667, "fair_value": 2699.376731, "relative_strength": -0.78301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.896611, "energy": 60.786562, "activity_lines": [ 3164.133333, 3155.840909, 3094.830952, 3045.731183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3256.5, "volume": 9928, "typical_volume": 10915.1, "trend": 3007.291667, "fair_value": 2705.628333, "relative_strength": 1.471656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.678125, "energy": 79.688374, "activity_lines": [ 3193.633333, 3177.345455, 3117.077381, 3062.443011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }