{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42cb21f5-e6a4-47c9-bb47-1a9c9c3c3341", "symbol": "NRAIL", "name": "N R Agarwal Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.984, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.791, "architecture_energy": 60.617, "architecture_maturity": 38.056, "architecture_confidence": 81.926, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.42, "rotation_up": 68.1, "upward_expansion": 81.78, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 17.34, "downward_expansion": 17.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 495.233329, 473.405453, 466.452381, 460.256344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 544.549988, "trend_reference": 453.525, "distance_from_trend": 0.200706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 398.855124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.545471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.24213, "excess_performance": 0.28584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200706, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04878, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.225455, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.24213, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.315753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 266417, "relative_activity": 6.276248, "balance": 3.315753, "dry_up": 3.055271, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086811, "annualized_volatility": 0.447112, "from_high_reference": -0.051307, "from_low_reference": 0.643578 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 453.525, "fair_value_reference": 398.855124, "structural_low": 385.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032967, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.020539, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.347436, "worst_return": -0.124111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.115625, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.077779, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.368714, "worst_return": -0.330347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018266, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.089979, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.424354, "worst_return": -0.230509, "sufficient": true }, 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26.42688, "activity_lines": [ 438.71, 447.127274, 451.781667, 450.32785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 427.75, "volume": 22564, "typical_volume": 20400.4, "trend": 449.423334, "fair_value": 394.953426, "relative_strength": -0.800886, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.0634, "energy": 37.060835, "activity_lines": [ 433.346665, 442.092728, 449.762381, 448.852688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 508.950012, "volume": 175796, "typical_volume": 28787.75, "trend": 450.393334, "fair_value": 396.373835, "relative_strength": 19.862609, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.514877, "energy": 19.291422, "activity_lines": [ 456.430003, 453.244548, 455.631906, 452.693119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 473.399994, "volume": 53989, "typical_volume": 30153.5, "trend": 450.326667, "fair_value": 397.436256, "relative_strength": 8.138595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.23524, "energy": 20.783441, "activity_lines": [ 464.573334, 457.012729, 457.807144, 454.17742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 544.549988, "volume": 266417, "typical_volume": 42448.45, "trend": 453.525, "fair_value": 398.855124, "relative_strength": 22.545471, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.791156, "energy": 60.616821, "activity_lines": [ 495.233329, 473.405453, 466.452381, 460.256344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }