{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42d1f793-21bd-4bd9-ba10-64fa89bb5105", "symbol": "TUA", "name": "Tuas Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.51, "architecture_energy": 64.337, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 29.69, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 59.04, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.18, 2.253091, 2.926476, 3.704667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.16, "trend_reference": 4.737, "distance_from_trend": -0.544015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.854712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.555071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.238677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.668712, "excess_performance": -0.732417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.544015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.555071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.77387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.642387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.541791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.668712, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4665988, "relative_activity": 0.582574, "balance": 0.186403, "dry_up": 0.792763, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.26015, "annualized_volatility": 1.404276, "from_high_reference": -0.74209, "from_low_reference": 0.13089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.737, "fair_value_reference": 4.854712, "structural_low": 1.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021594, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011674, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.478846, "worst_return": -0.621931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.185317, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.1798, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.319231, "worst_return": -0.678571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.469231, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.446939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.488095, "worst_return": 0.044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.129115, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144565, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336, "worst_return": -0.594231, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.154639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.175047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099227, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.641117, "energy": 67.598507, "activity_lines": [ 2.239333, 2.314, 3.291619, 4.068409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.16, "volume": 7532016, "typical_volume": 8070626.0, "trend": 4.897, "fair_value": 4.852019, "relative_strength": -63.518424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.27483, "energy": 66.028902, "activity_lines": [ 2.207333, 2.282182, 3.099905, 3.881247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.16, "volume": 4665988, "typical_volume": 8009263.6, "trend": 4.737, "fair_value": 4.854712, "relative_strength": -64.238677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.510126, "energy": 64.336554, "activity_lines": [ 2.18, 2.253091, 2.926476, 3.704667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }