{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42d23ef1-9986-4985-bd11-61e22b93f19c", "symbol": "COP", "name": "ConocoPhillips", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.648, "architecture_energy": 21.158, "architecture_maturity": 32.715, "architecture_confidence": 50.016, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.46, "rotation_up": 54.25, "upward_expansion": 32.79, "deceleration": 47.15, "rotation_down": 16.92, "downward_expansion": 21.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 2040.861328, 1993.764908, 2015.464539, 2036.272699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2000.0, "trend_reference": 2019.078617, "distance_from_trend": -0.009449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1962.061428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.121402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080859, "excess_performance": 0.135526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009449, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041214, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.35364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36, "relative_activity": 0.082797, "balance": 3.35364, "dry_up": 0.719296, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04893, "annualized_volatility": 0.378031, "from_high_reference": -0.183992, "from_low_reference": 0.2541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2019.078617, "fair_value_reference": 1962.061428, "structural_low": 1814.150024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01927, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01896, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.131679, "worst_return": -0.047894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.06805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.451937, "worst_return": -0.167062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066784, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255895, "worst_return": 0.01459, "sufficient": false }, { 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2021.708371, 2030.965741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2091.47998, "volume": 141, "typical_volume": 539.7, "trend": 2011.426949, "fair_value": 1961.965716, "relative_strength": 8.886857, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.796902, "energy": 20.436877, "activity_lines": [ 2036.503328, 1991.194544, 2022.793591, 2037.009922 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2000.0, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 434.8, "trend": 2019.078617, "fair_value": 1962.061428, "relative_strength": 4.121402, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.64788, "energy": 21.158433, "activity_lines": [ 2040.861328, 1993.764908, 2015.464539, 2036.272699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }