{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42d3ddb1-e5d7-4571-a838-f036b45de767", "symbol": "INFLA", "name": "SG ETN Inflation Proxy", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.627, "architecture_energy": 54.98, "architecture_maturity": 55.222, "architecture_confidence": 70.144, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.37, "rotation_up": 54.21, "upward_expansion": 78.34, "deceleration": 71.29, "rotation_down": 25.0, "downward_expansion": 7.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.969333, 35.693818, 35.524047, 34.620742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.68, "trend_reference": 33.296333, "distance_from_trend": 0.101623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.194775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.455857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.765923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.217391, "excess_performance": 0.0465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.455857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077659, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.372563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 582, "relative_activity": 1.195317, "balance": 4.372563, "dry_up": 1.500822, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027305, "annualized_volatility": 0.153083, "from_high_reference": -0.025893, "from_low_reference": 0.566183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.296333, "fair_value_reference": 25.194775, "structural_low": 30.129999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006844, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012215, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.150939, "worst_return": -0.031587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006844, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040601, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150939, "worst_return": -0.054578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.148235, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.063369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344577, "worst_return": -0.048108, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.057166, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.261938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057166, "worst_return": -0.057166, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00289, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006651, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150939, "active": false }, { "regime": 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35.487628, "activity_lines": [ 34.828333, 35.486272, 34.944905, 33.931989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.09, "volume": 1145, "typical_volume": 454.3, "trend": 32.673333, "fair_value": 25.012691, "relative_strength": 10.69923, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.298086, "energy": 31.968916, "activity_lines": [ 35.168, 35.531272, 35.148548, 34.172065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.919998, "volume": 170, "typical_volume": 457.8, "trend": 32.972167, "fair_value": 25.099967, "relative_strength": 9.053942, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.14144, "energy": 34.341876, "activity_lines": [ 35.473999, 35.542909, 35.313238, 34.381527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.68, "volume": 582, "typical_volume": 486.9, "trend": 33.296333, "fair_value": 25.194775, "relative_strength": 7.765923, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.626951, "energy": 54.979547, "activity_lines": [ 35.969333, 35.693818, 35.524047, 34.620742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }