{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42d50fcd-aa7c-4a3a-8b96-81ba7c2e9048", "symbol": "RNEW4", "name": "Renova Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.314, "architecture_energy": 57.407, "architecture_maturity": 30.568, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.57, "rotation_up": 23.63, "upward_expansion": 10.74, "deceleration": 46.11, "rotation_down": 55.64, "downward_expansion": 84.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.798667, 0.813273, 0.867143, 0.923527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.82, "trend_reference": 0.972, "distance_from_trend": -0.156379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.670192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.509039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.58729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098901, "excess_performance": -0.041853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.509039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021603, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148000, "relative_activity": 0.538613, "balance": 0.354323, "dry_up": 1.212243, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093809, "annualized_volatility": 0.629744, "from_high_reference": -0.414286, "from_low_reference": 0.15493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.972, "fair_value_reference": 1.670192, "structural_low": 0.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.012856, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.051817, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.585799, "worst_return": -0.246032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.052083, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.163852, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.65493, "worst_return": -0.396341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.12814, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.16629, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.358382, "worst_return": -0.434641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043011, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178218, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.445122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.79, "volume": 27200, "typical_volume": 392770.0, "trend": 0.986667, "fair_value": 1.751154, "relative_strength": -26.930631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.124825, "energy": 63.893927, "activity_lines": [ 0.86, 0.884727, 0.958476, 0.983871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.8, "volume": 132000, "typical_volume": 381105.0, "trend": 0.984667, "fair_value": 1.733205, "relative_strength": -26.87511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.328691, "energy": 74.412395, "activity_lines": [ 0.834667, 0.864364, 0.937, 0.971828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.78, "volume": 172400, "typical_volume": 307015.0, "trend": 0.981667, "fair_value": 1.716667, "relative_strength": -25.761704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.692872, "energy": 82.388602, "activity_lines": [ 0.81, 0.844182, 0.914476, 0.958624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.76, "volume": 607400, "typical_volume": 284910.0, "trend": 0.978, "fair_value": 1.701795, "relative_strength": -26.813548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.639956, "energy": 85.864539, "activity_lines": [ 0.786, 0.824364, 0.892905, 0.944323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.81, "volume": 404600, "typical_volume": 291315.0, "trend": 0.974333, "fair_value": 1.686603, "relative_strength": -22.703045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.729294, "energy": 79.625727, "activity_lines": [ 0.788, 0.816909, 0.878619, 0.933484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.82, "volume": 148000, "typical_volume": 274780.0, "trend": 0.972, "fair_value": 1.670192, "relative_strength": -18.58729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.314301, "energy": 57.406981, "activity_lines": [ 0.798667, 0.813273, 0.867143, 0.923527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }