{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42dadb24-df4a-4cc2-ba9c-8563eff80285", "symbol": "KSM-F43", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - Short Term Treasury Bill Fund", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.281, "architecture_energy": 61.805, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.686, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.66, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 43.35, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.968767, 31.932015, 568.82357, 1181.326188 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.000601, "trend_reference": 1904.01686, "distance_from_trend": -0.983193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2756.635351, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.860052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989813, "excess_performance": -1.0311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.056359, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.737313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.387777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1946, "relative_activity": 0.33011, "balance": 1.387777, "dry_up": 0.393342, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.552458, "annualized_volatility": 6.385114, "from_high_reference": -0.989906, "from_low_reference": 0.009164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1904.01686, "fair_value_reference": 2756.635351, "structural_low": 31.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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31.8842, 202.983168, 1194.196324, 1730.964176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.934099, "volume": 6289, "typical_volume": 17647.6, "trend": 2213.368182, "fair_value": 2809.700991, "relative_strength": -98.932967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.257285, "energy": 66.981685, "activity_lines": [ 31.90598, 88.928612, 1015.574327, 1583.58848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.938999, "volume": 84, "typical_volume": 17566.35, "trend": 2110.341816, "fair_value": 2792.03701, "relative_strength": -98.923203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.830746, "energy": 63.138418, "activity_lines": [ 31.92266, 31.884143, 851.799444, 1442.851114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.980701, "volume": 956, "typical_volume": 6918.4, "trend": 2007.275841, "fair_value": 2774.361629, "relative_strength": -98.891121, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.624297, "energy": 62.637055, "activity_lines": [ 31.9461, 31.908367, 702.87887, 1308.7633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.000601, "volume": 1946, "typical_volume": 5895.0, "trend": 1904.01686, "fair_value": 2756.635351, "relative_strength": -98.860052, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.28068, "energy": 61.804973, "activity_lines": [ 31.968767, 31.932015, 568.82357, 1181.326188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }