{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42eda493-c5a0-4e4a-ba2e-38bf6ae4fca9", "symbol": "REG", "name": "Regis Healthcare Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.738, "architecture_energy": 24.948, "architecture_maturity": 12.681, "architecture_confidence": 91.463, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.48, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 4.21, "deceleration": 44.83, "rotation_down": 48.68, "downward_expansion": 72.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.218667, 6.268, 6.286667, 6.304422 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.3, "trend_reference": 6.354123, "distance_from_trend": -0.008518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.489573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.554145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003919, "excess_performance": -0.067625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049855, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2366865, "relative_activity": 0.891845, "balance": 0.471696, "dry_up": 0.979351, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073626, "annualized_volatility": 0.356423, "from_high_reference": -0.320757, "from_low_reference": 0.120996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.354123, "fair_value_reference": 5.489573, "structural_low": 5.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.053812, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.03889, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.130873, "worst_return": -0.179051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085143, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.085467, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.247677, "worst_return": -0.198493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.086989, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.100668, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099017, "worst_return": -0.182761, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.165195, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.17036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112756, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 6.23, "volume": 1816021, "typical_volume": 2688387.5, "trend": 6.370737, "fair_value": 5.462898, "relative_strength": -10.400141, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.484499, "energy": 25.362161, "activity_lines": [ 6.217333, 6.265455, 6.285238, 6.308986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.3, "volume": 2366865, "typical_volume": 2653896.1, "trend": 6.354123, "fair_value": 5.489573, "relative_strength": -11.554145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.738003, "energy": 24.947705, "activity_lines": [ 6.218667, 6.268, 6.286667, 6.304422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }