{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42ee48c0-6c53-4866-8d6b-429744650078", "symbol": "605599", "name": "Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.744, "architecture_energy": 31.134, "architecture_maturity": 78.976, "architecture_confidence": 79.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.47, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 24.42, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 63.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.611334, 15.111116, 15.704465, 17.216624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.040001, "trend_reference": 18.863908, "distance_from_trend": -0.149699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.946608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.909451, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254647, "excess_performance": -0.211443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150101, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00287, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54294364, "relative_activity": 2.014631, "balance": 0.723819, "dry_up": 1.754889, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076025, "annualized_volatility": 0.581265, "from_high_reference": -0.434215, "from_low_reference": 0.198804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.863908, "fair_value_reference": 13.946608, "structural_low": 13.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020484, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012642, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.19313, "worst_return": -0.034173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064394, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.070938, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.315246, "worst_return": -0.05036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.021622, "worst_return": -0.038087, "sufficient": false }, 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"activity_lines": [ 14.572758, 14.981682, 17.197399, 18.433131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.88, "volume": 30178182, "typical_volume": 24482938.75, "trend": 18.927907, "fair_value": 13.872898, "relative_strength": -20.26844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.997308, "energy": 69.937862, "activity_lines": [ 14.314, 14.673854, 16.680508, 18.104428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.1, "volume": 32567664, "typical_volume": 24488163.25, "trend": 18.898574, "fair_value": 13.885768, "relative_strength": -13.682307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.23321, "energy": 65.091842, "activity_lines": [ 14.186, 14.484854, 16.239045, 17.79295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.71, "volume": 49692942, "typical_volume": 24071983.25, "trend": 18.849574, "fair_value": 13.903194, "relative_strength": -10.891666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.815146, "energy": 60.564077, "activity_lines": [ 14.34, 14.472444, 15.906629, 17.522719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.940001, "volume": 52622231, "typical_volume": 25615663.2, "trend": 18.874908, "fair_value": 13.930573, "relative_strength": 2.088401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.458825, "energy": 47.348593, "activity_lines": [ 15.228, 14.887632, 15.8315, 17.399521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 54294364, "typical_volume": 26950023.7, "trend": 18.863908, "fair_value": 13.946608, "relative_strength": -5.909451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.743623, "energy": 31.13446, "activity_lines": [ 15.611334, 15.111116, 15.704465, 17.216624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }