{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42f137fd-844a-4943-8bcc-7f25194203db", "symbol": "300074", "name": "AVCON Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.587, "architecture_energy": 50.444, "architecture_maturity": 76.749, "architecture_confidence": 90.543, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 23.51, "upward_expansion": 7.66, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 54.84, "downward_expansion": 80.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.470667, 3.494182, 3.742762, 3.931742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.67, "trend_reference": 4.214, "distance_from_trend": -0.129093, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.301731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.890823, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217484, "excess_performance": -0.224884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129093, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095514, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176125, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100470124, "relative_activity": 1.383251, "balance": 0.648367, "dry_up": 1.355928, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089499, "annualized_volatility": 0.36978, "from_high_reference": -0.350442, "from_low_reference": 0.215232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.214, "fair_value_reference": 4.301731, "structural_low": 3.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.03066, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.02047, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.306452, "worst_return": -0.180617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049724, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.047007, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.629393, "worst_return": -0.199063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018913, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.134895, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.51875, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.324251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.197674, "energy": 87.182735, "activity_lines": [ 3.443333, 3.644, 3.899381, 4.092688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.19, "volume": 100265224, "typical_volume": 70993670.0, "trend": 4.285333, "fair_value": 4.310385, "relative_strength": -31.150575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.587071, "energy": 80.438072, "activity_lines": [ 3.342, 3.523818, 3.814952, 4.018882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.51, "volume": 91156954, "typical_volume": 71535222.45, "trend": 4.245333, "fair_value": 4.305192, "relative_strength": -22.255224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.68215, "energy": 59.940711, "activity_lines": [ 3.382667, 3.485091, 3.768524, 3.96886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.67, "volume": 100470124, "typical_volume": 72633353.65, "trend": 4.214, "fair_value": 4.301731, "relative_strength": -21.890823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.587246, "energy": 50.44417, "activity_lines": [ 3.470667, 3.494182, 3.742762, 3.931742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }