{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42f90637-b0c6-4445-9386-a93275892d83", "symbol": "114470", "name": "KOSEF KTB", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 59.368, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.38, "architecture_energy": 13.623, "architecture_maturity": 12.161, "architecture_confidence": 57.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.66, "rotation_up": 36.07, "upward_expansion": 33.25, "deceleration": 43.43, "rotation_down": 18.37, "downward_expansion": 43.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 107787.666667, 107686.309091, 107565.857403, 107710.880309 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 108110.0, "trend_reference": 107954.07474, "distance_from_trend": 0.001444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 106218.572466, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017807, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.00155, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002544, "excess_performance": -0.232373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000967, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002544, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.314717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8216, "relative_activity": 0.289653, "balance": 2.314717, "dry_up": 0.186612, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003624, "annualized_volatility": 0.022802, "from_high_reference": -0.015936, "from_low_reference": 0.011581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107954.07474, "fair_value_reference": 106218.572466, "structural_low": 106872.309249, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001155, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.027016, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.01351, "worst_return": -0.012975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.2e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02668, "worst_return": -0.0177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015127, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033277, 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108062.638802, "fair_value": 106070.425331, "relative_strength": -31.957668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.955958, "energy": 23.190084, "activity_lines": [ 107640.666667, 107503.827983, 107535.989286, 107760.869792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107255.0, "volume": 1395, "typical_volume": 28888.05, "trend": 108011.333073, "fair_value": 106116.184796, "relative_strength": -29.778959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.7707, "energy": 23.293012, "activity_lines": [ 107514.333333, 107480.246733, 107491.985008, 107708.764063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107915.0, "volume": 9575, "typical_volume": 28969.0, "trend": 107980.865104, "fair_value": 106167.065255, "relative_strength": -27.182167, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.137055, "energy": 7.550296, "activity_lines": [ 107624.333333, 107572.052841, 107518.171205, 107702.549026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108110.0, "volume": 8216, "typical_volume": 28364.95, "trend": 107954.07474, "fair_value": 106218.572466, "relative_strength": -22.00155, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.379679, "energy": 13.623254, "activity_lines": [ 107787.666667, 107686.309091, 107565.857403, 107710.880309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }