{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42fe1984-c909-4c57-86f7-2a3ae0956d9e", "symbol": "PHGN34", "name": "Koninklijke Philips N.V.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.677, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.485, "architecture_energy": 35.004, "architecture_maturity": 30.876, "architecture_confidence": 58.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.86, "rotation_up": 9.65, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 62.52, "rotation_down": 60.61, "downward_expansion": 65.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.636662, 137.617814, 136.408096, 137.787295 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 135.979996, "trend_reference": 141.080471, "distance_from_trend": -0.036153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 129.468002, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.467967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088471, "excess_performance": -0.031423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050298, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015977, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.520857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24, "relative_activity": 0.088988, "balance": 1.520857, "dry_up": 2.275677, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027319, "annualized_volatility": 0.284342, "from_high_reference": -0.185588, "from_low_reference": 0.096525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.080471, "fair_value_reference": 129.468002, "structural_low": 124.009933, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.063753, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021132, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.065861, "worst_return": -0.07853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.08375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.157383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08375, "worst_return": 0.08375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.257181, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.16473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257181, "worst_return": 0.257181, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.17382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01085, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.043597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037671, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025083, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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36.666329, "activity_lines": [ 133.335479, 132.429828, 136.795947, 139.790741 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 137.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 227.1, "trend": 142.069525, "fair_value": 127.026535, "relative_strength": -9.440284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.347759, "energy": 31.448641, "activity_lines": [ 135.19733, 133.276432, 136.43308, 139.486606 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 139.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 181.5, "trend": 141.942958, "fair_value": 127.404964, "relative_strength": -7.135539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.918681, "energy": 28.574625, "activity_lines": [ 136.978664, 134.311798, 136.264793, 139.288572 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 140.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 176.45, "trend": 141.83361, "fair_value": 127.722418, "relative_strength": -8.778808, "stage": 4, "regime": 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189.85, "trend": 141.996144, "fair_value": 128.613882, "relative_strength": -7.22739, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.017286, "energy": 29.039531, "activity_lines": [ 141.81133, 139.815088, 137.200507, 139.310757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.899994, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 181.4, "trend": 141.789854, "fair_value": 128.889203, "relative_strength": -13.101252, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.677553, "energy": 24.524615, "activity_lines": [ 138.648662, 138.792906, 136.66415, 138.659393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.649994, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 286.25, "trend": 141.357657, "fair_value": 129.168255, "relative_strength": -13.293776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.571847, "energy": 30.798838, "activity_lines": [ 136.542662, 137.965087, 136.402241, 138.134241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.979996, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 269.7, "trend": 141.080471, "fair_value": 129.468002, "relative_strength": -8.467967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.485224, "energy": 35.003895, "activity_lines": [ 135.636662, 137.617814, 136.408096, 137.787295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }